EV Shift and Your Parts: Which Auto Components Lose Volume in India, Which Carry Over, and By When
Which auto components lose volume to EVs in India, and when? Engine, fuel-system, exhaust and most transmission parts are ICE-only; brakes, steering, suspension, body and electricals carry over. As of 20 Oct 2026 the shift is still small: EV parts were 4.6% of component supplies to OEMs in FY2025-26, per ACMA.
Last checked: 20 Oct 2026
By the Mama Editorial Team. Every ₹ figure in the worked example is an assumption unless a source is named in the same sentence. This is a planning method, not an investment recommendation.
Key takeaways
- The exposure sits in the powertrain. An ICE powertrain has about 1,400 components and an EV powertrain about 200, per Figure 2 of the WRI India working paper of September 2025.
- The speed depends on the segment you supply. In FY2025-26, electric L5 passenger three-wheelers reached 33.7% of their segment, electric two-wheelers 6.6% and electric cars 4.6%, per the trade publication EVreporter's analysis of Vahan registration data, published 13 May 2026.
- The ICE market is still growing. Two-wheeler sales grew 15.2% and passenger vehicle sales 30.7% in July–September 2026 over a year earlier, per SIAM's Q2 FY2027 release of 15 Oct 2026.
- Growth covers the EV loss only up to a point. In our worked example, an ICE-only line holds its volume to 2030 if EV share in its segment reaches 15%, and loses 25% if EV share reaches 30% with a flat market.
- The first signal is lost hours, not lost customers. Track the machine hours each part family uses now, so you know which cells free up first and what they can be sold for.
Where the shift stands in October 2026
India's target is a 30% EV share in total vehicle sales by 2030, per the NITI Aayog e-mobility page (checked 20 Oct 2026). The same page puts India's EV share at about 7.7% of sales in 2024.
EV penetration in India reached 8.26% in FY2025-26, per VAHAN data cited by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways in its reply to Lok Sabha unstarred question 1956 of 30 Jul 2026.
For component makers, the more useful number is ACMA's. EV components were 4.6% of auto-component supplies to domestic OEMs in FY2025-26, excluding lithium-ion batteries, per the President's message in the ACMA Annual Report 2025-26 (p. 9 of the PDF). The share was the same 4.6% in April–September 2025, per the ACMA H1 FY26 review of 14 Jan 2026.
The total market kept growing. Component supplies to OEMs rose 16.3% to ₹6,628 billion (about ₹6.6 lakh crore) in FY2025-26, per the same ACMA Annual Report 2025-26.
No date for ending ICE vehicle sales in India appears on the NITI Aayog e-mobility page or in the ACMA reviews cited here (checked 20 Oct 2026). The 30% figure is a target, not a ban.
How fast it moves depends on which segment you supply
Your exposure is set by your customers' segments, not by the national average.
| Segment (FY2025-26) | EV units | EV share of segment sales (%) | What it means for an ICE-parts supplier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electric L5 passenger three-wheelers | not stated in the source | 33.7 | Fastest-moving; engine parts for this segment are already under pressure |
| Electric two-wheelers | 14,72,029 | 6.6 | Largest EV pool by units; slow share gain on a very large base |
| Electric cars (four-wheelers) | 2,22,870 | 4.6 | Units up 90.4% in a year from a small base |
| Electric goods carriers (N1–N3) | 14,803 | 1.6 | Trucks remain almost entirely ICE |
Source for all rows: EVreporter, a trade publication, analysing Vahan dashboard and Telangana transport portal data, April 2025–March 2026, published 13 May 2026. The segment shares are EVreporter's calculations; the government figure for FY2025-26 is the 8.26% all-vehicle share above.
Tractors and construction equipment are not in this table, while ACMA's turnover includes supplies to off-road vehicle makers, per note 1 of its H1 FY26 review. A supplier with a large tractor or construction-equipment share has a different clock from a scooter supplier.
The ICE segments are not shrinking yet. SIAM reports record FY2025-26 sales of 2.17 crore two-wheelers (up 10.7%) and 46.43 lakh passenger vehicles (up 7.9%) in its FY2025-26 release of 14 Apr 2026.
The same SIAM release reports two-wheeler exports of 51.8 lakh units in FY2025-26, up 23.4%. Export markets such as Africa and Latin America are a separate demand stream for ICE parts.
Part by part: ICE-only, carries over, or new for EV
The split follows the structure of the powertrain. The WRI India paper lists the ICE powertrain as engine components, fuel system, exhaust, engine cooling, and transmission and driveshaft. It lists the EV powertrain as battery pack, motor, power electronics and control units, thermal management, and charging port and high-voltage cables.
| Part family | Status in a battery EV | What changes for the supplier | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pistons, rings, crankshaft, camshaft, valves, cylinder head and block | ICE-only | Volume falls with EV share in your segment | WRI India Fig. 2 (engine components) |
| Fuel pumps, injectors, fuel lines, tanks | ICE-only | Same | WRI India Fig. 2 (fuel system) |
| Exhaust, silencer, catalytic converter | ICE-only | Same | WRI India Fig. 2 (exhaust) |
| Radiator, water pump, engine cooling | ICE-only as engine cooling; partly reborn as battery and motor thermal management | New specs and customers | WRI India Fig. 2 |
| Gears and transmission parts | Carries over in smaller numbers | Fewer gears, higher precision; grinding replaces gear shaving | WRI India, p.14 |
| Forgings and die-castings | Carries over at lower volume | EVs need fewer forged and die-cast parts and 25–27% more aluminium | WRI India, p.14 |
| Machined housings, brackets, shafts | Carries over with adaptation | Existing machining processes reused for motor and transmission parts | WRI India, p.13 |
| Brakes, steering, suspension | Carries over | Same processes, changed designs | WRI India, p.13 |
| Plastic injection-moulded parts, body and interior | Carries over | Powertrain-agnostic | WRI India, p.13 |
| Electricals, electronics, wiring harnesses | Carries over and grows | Starter-motor winding lines adapt to EV motors with minimal changes; harness makers adapt designs for EVs | WRI India, pp.13–14, 17 |
| Battery pack, motor, inverter, BMS, charger, HV cables | New for EV | New processes, new capital, new customers | WRI India Fig. 2 and Fig. 12 |
WRI India, "The projected EV transition in the Indian automotive manufacturing industry", working paper, September 2025, based on 58 interviews. PDF.
Hybrids keep the engine, the fuel system and the exhaust. A hybrid sale is an ICE sale for an engine-parts supplier.
What suppliers told WRI India
The WRI India paper, based on 58 interviews with OEMs and component makers of different sizes, is the closest public evidence from Indian Tier-2 and Tier-3 plants.
MSMEs making ICE engine and exhaust parts that were not willing or able to diversify expected a 50–70% decline in their ICE business as the transition progressed, per the WRI India paper (p.12).
Process-based suppliers expected a smaller hit. A maker of precision-machined engine parts told WRI India that it had moved into EV motor and transmission parts using its existing processes and machines, but at lower volumes than its ICE business (p.13).
Makers of suspension, steering, electronics and plastic moulded parts saw business as usual or a positive impact, per the same paper (p.13).
Gear makers face a capital question. Five of the 12 ICE transmission-component makers interviewed said EV gears must be more precise, and three MSMEs and one large Tier-1 said the grinding machines needed were unaffordably expensive (p.14).
ACMA flags one more constraint: the limited availability of rare-earth magnets, in the H1 FY26 review. That matters to any supplier planning a move into EV motors.
Worked example: when growth stops covering the EV loss
Assume a 2W-focused Tier-2 plant with ₹150 crore turnover. Assume ₹60 crore of it is ICE-only parts (engine and fuel-system machining), ₹40 crore gears and ₹50 crore brake and suspension parts.
Assume the ICE-only cells use 40,000 machine-hours a year and earn a 30% contribution margin. The starting EV share in the customer's segment is 6.6%, the FY2025-26 electric two-wheeler share per EVreporter's Vahan analysis.
The test is one line: ICE volume in 2030 = (1 − EV share in 2030) ÷ (1 − 0.066) × (1 + market growth)⁴.
| Scenario to FY2029-30 (assumptions) | EV share in segment (%) | Market growth (% a year) | ICE-only volume change (%) | Revenue change on ₹60 crore (₹ crore) | Contribution change (₹ crore) | Machine-hours freed (h/year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Slow EV, healthy market | 15 | 5 | +10.6 | +6.4 | +1.9 | none; 4,248 more needed |
| B. Target pace, steady market | 30 | 4 | −12.3 | −7.4 | −2.2 | 4,929 |
| C. Target pace, flat market | 30 | 0 | −25.1 | −15.0 | −4.5 | 10,021 |
| D. Fast EV, weak market | 50 | 2 | −42.1 | −25.2 | −7.6 | 16,822 |
At 15% EV share, a healthy market more than covers the loss. At 30%, the line loses an eighth to a quarter of its volume; at 50%, over two-fifths.
The gear line moves less in volume than these numbers suggest but more in capital, because WRI India's interviewees describe fewer, more precise gears. The brake and suspension line moves with total vehicle volume, not with the EV share.
Freed hours have a cash value only if you sell them. A cell that loses 5,000 hours a year needs a new part family, an export customer or a non-auto job, and the contribution test for filler jobs tells you which offers add cash.
By when: three dates to watch
The first date is your customer's model plan: an OEM's EV platform launch says more about your volume than the national target.
The second is the 2030 national target of a 30% EV share of total sales, per the NITI Aayog e-mobility page. Vahan data put India at 8.26% in FY2025-26.
The third is the longer projection. EV sales across all modes are expected to reach about 50% by 2035 in the International Energy Agency's Stated Policies Scenario, as cited in the executive summary of the WRI India paper.
The aftermarket runs on a delay. The vehicles sold today will need ICE spare parts for years, and the aftermarket grew 9% to ₹53,160 crore in H1 FY26, per the ACMA H1 FY26 review.
Four moves before the volume drops
Map revenue and hours by part family. Put every part number into one of the three columns of the table above. Add the machine-hours each family uses today. Use the machine utilisation calculator for the hours.
Run the four scenarios on your own numbers. Use your customers' segment mix, not the national average. A scooter-heavy customer list and a tractor-heavy one give different answers.
Prove spare capacity before buying for EV parts. If a cell is already running below plan, its hours may cover the first EV trial orders. A new tooled part needs a full PPAP at Ford-style customers; what a PPAP costs prices the tests. The method is in Before You Buy Another CNC: Prove the Capacity You Already Have.
Check government support before the capex. PLI, ZED and state policies differ in who qualifies; see Government money for auto-component suppliers in 2026. The wider list of options for free capacity is in the auto-component opportunities overview.
What cameras cannot tell you here
Cameras cannot forecast your customer's EV mix, read an OEM's sourcing plan or price an EV part.
Cameras can show what is happening on your own floor: which cells run and which wait, how many hours each part family takes, and which machines start idling as ICE schedules thin out. That is the data the worked example needs.
Where Mama fits
Mama reads the cameras a factory already has, or cameras it adds, and every morning sends the owner a short note in plain language: which machines stood idle yesterday, for how long, and what those hours were worth in rupees. It watches machines, not people, and ranks no operators. Over a few months that shows which ICE cells are losing hours first and how much capacity is free for new work. Leave an email or phone in the form below and Mama will get back to you with a camera plan.
FAQ
Which auto parts are not needed in electric vehicles? Engine parts (pistons, rings, crankshafts, camshafts, valves, heads and blocks), the fuel system and the exhaust system are not needed in a battery EV. Engine cooling is replaced by battery and motor thermal management, and the transmission uses fewer gears, per the WRI India working paper of September 2025.
Do electric two-wheelers threaten my engine-parts business now? Not yet in volume: electric two-wheelers were 6.6% of segment sales in FY2025-26, per EVreporter's Vahan analysis, while total two-wheeler sales grew 10.7%, per SIAM. The risk grows if your customer's EV share passes about 15% while its total market slows.
Are brakes, steering and suspension safe from the EV shift? They carry over: WRI India's interviewees describe the same processes with changed designs. Tier-2 and Tier-3 makers of child parts may still need new skills when designs change.
How much of auto-component supply to OEMs is EV today? EV components were 4.6% of supplies to domestic OEMs in FY2025-26, excluding lithium-ion batteries, per the ACMA Annual Report 2025-26.
Is there a date when ICE vehicles will be banned in India? No ICE sales end date appears on the NITI Aayog e-mobility page or in the ACMA reviews cited here (checked 20 Oct 2026). The published goal is a 30% EV share of total vehicle sales by 2030.